Partner Insight: Budget 2024 - public debt switch likely to increase LGPS scrutiny and focus investment time horizons

Unlike the currently used Public Sector Net Debt (PSND) approach – which largely compares cash receipts (mostly taxes) and cash outlays (mostly day-to-day public service spending), netting off only very liquid assets such as cash and FX reserves – PSNFL includes some additional longer-term assets and liabilities.

One of the more significant additions is funded public sector pensions (ie, the Local Government Pension Scheme), which at the time of writing is in a strong position, around 120% funded1. This excess of assets versus liabilities means that PSNFL reduces the UK's debt level relative to PSND (or PSND ex Bank of England, ie adjusted for quantitative easing and related programmes).

This change of approach creates more headroom for the government, increasing scope for spending and/or reducing the pressure to raise taxes. As this move was well communicated before the Budget it did not come as a surprise to investment markets. Overall, it frees up about £50 billion of headroom, although it is not expected that this will all be used immediately. It will, however, support future investment spending to drive economic growth. The announcement was accompanied by a promise to have PSNFL falling over the Parliamentary term.

What does this mean for LGPS?

• Firstly, there is likely to be more scrutiny on LGPS funding ratios within central government, as a deterioration in the funding ratio (even if they remain in excess of 100%) will worsen the PSNFL metric and have direct and immediate knock-on consequences for the country's finances.
• The change introduces an additional milestone for assessing LGPS funding ratios, to coincide with the five-year electoral cycle. Whereas the LGPS have always been able to take a long-term approach to deficit recovery and smoothing of contribution rates, this change forces a periodic check-in with a finite time horizon.
• Linked to this point, the March 2028 tri-annual valuation cycle 2 will increase in importance as it will occur the year before the end of the current parliament.
• With PSNFL considering both sides of the LGPS balance sheet, there is likely to be central government support for continuing to take investment risk to further improve the funding position. This is consistent with the government's aspiration to use pension scheme assets to support UK growth through investment in UK productive assets.

Interest rates are broadly considered to be at the peak of the current cycle, with material scope for falling further or faster than is currently priced in. Falling interest rates would result in rising liability values and worsening funding ratios, irrespective of the good work being done on growth investments and Pooling cost and governance efficiency gains. Increases to inflation expectations would have the same impact, albeit more modest.

A liability hedging strategy would address the issue directly by immunising the funding ratio from changes in interest rates and inflation expectations. It would mean that any excess returns delivered by growth assets would feed directly through to the bottom line to improve funding ratios, and not be eroded by falling interest rates.

Liability hedging is a flexible, robust and highly tailorable investment tool, so is something that can reflect the unique valuation approach, time-horizon, liability profile and capital availability of each Fund within the Scheme, and potentially be implemented at either Fund or Pool level. We would be delighted to discuss how a hedging strategy might work for you. 

If you would like further details or would like to discuss why we think these points are of interest, then please do get in touch. 

Moira Gorman

Client Relationship and Sales Director